A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
